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Zoe M. Pfeiffer

Yield: +1.07% | Hit Rate: 57.14%

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[Picks]Free Pick: A “Dimensionality Reduction” Blowout Between the Bottom and the Top of the Norwegian Eliteserien

716h ago

Handicap05/21 00:00Norwegian Eliteserien

Win

Start Kristiansand

Start Kristiansand
FT--
Bodo Glimt

Bodo Glimt

Home+1.5/2 (-)
Away-1.5/2 (-)
In Round 8 of the Norwegian Eliteserien, Start host Bodø/Glimt. It is a matchup between the bottom side in the table and the team in fourth place, but based on the numbers, the gap between the two sides is far greater than the rankings suggest. The home team Start are still winless after nine league matches this season, with 0 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats, making them the only side in the league yet to taste victory. They have scored just 9 goals in 9 matches, averaging 1 goal per game, while conceding 22, at an average of 2.44 per match. Worse still, although Start have drawn all three of their home matches, their opponents were Tromsø, Molde and Aalesund — and aside from Molde, the other two are lower-half sides. Against real contenders, Start’s back line has been completely exposed: a 6-1 away thrashing by Viking and a 5-0 away humiliation against Bodø/Glimt. Over their last six matches, Start have conceded 18 goals, with their defense being breached in almost every game. Bodø/Glimt, meanwhile, have been on another level. After 8 rounds they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, scoring 19 goals and conceding only 7, showing title-caliber dominance at both ends of the pitch. Away from home, they have played 4 matches, recording 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, scoring 6 and conceding 6. While their away attack is not as ferocious as at home, that output is more than enough against a side like Start. More importantly, Bodø/Glimt have conceded just 2 goals in their last 6 matches, with a defense that has been almost impenetrable. The head-to-head record is the clearest indicator in this case. In the last 10 meetings between the two teams, Bodø/Glimt hold the edge with 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses. In this season’s first meeting, Bodø/Glimt demolished Start 5-0 at home. In that match, Bodø/Glimt produced 13 shots with 7 on target, while Start managed only 1 shot on target throughout the game. Even more brutally, Bodø/Glimt have won each of their last 3 matches against Start, scoring 11 goals and conceding just 1. This kind of one-sided dominance is no longer something that can be described simply as a “psychological edge” — it is an outright gulf in quality. In the betting market, bookmakers have generally opened with a deep handicap of Bodø/Glimt -1.5/-2 away from home, with the away price sitting in the 0.80-0.96 range. For an away team, a line of -1.5/-2 combined with a reasonable price clearly signals strong support. In the first meeting, Bodø/Glimt were -2.5 at home and still covered comfortably in a 5-0 win. This time the handicap is slightly lower despite being away, but considering the home/away difference, it still falls into the deep-handicap category. As for team news, Start are missing starting center forward Benjamin, further weakening an attack that was already blunt. Bodø/Glimt also have midfielder Saltnes unavailable, but their squad depth is more than sufficient to cope, as shown by the seven goals they have scored in their last two matches. On the whole, Start are in poor form and collapsing defensively, while Bodø/Glimt are strong at both ends and have dominated this matchup historically. The 5-0 result in the first meeting already revealed the real difference in quality between the two sides. The bet here is on Bodø/Glimt to win by 2 goals or more away from home and continue strengthening their position near the top of the table.
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Zoe M. Pfeiffer's avatar

Zoe M. Pfeiffer

Yield: +1.08%
Hit Rate: +57.14%
Avg Odds: 1.67
Form(14): 8W-5L-1P+57.14%

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Zoe M. Pfeiffer's avatar

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Yield: +1.08%
Hit Rate: +57.14%
Avg Odds: 1.67
Form(14): 8W-5L-1P+57.14%

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