Marco Fischer
Rendimento: +8,93%
Taxa de Acertos: +56,64%
Odd Média: 6,71
Forma(30): 15V-14D-1N+50%
[Picks]Swedish Match Picks: Over/Under Analysis
Hoje 17:00 [Allsvenskan Sueca] IK Sirius FK VS Mjällby AIF
Mais/Menos
10 hours ago
1
810 hours agoRendimento: +8,93% | Taxa de Acertos: 56,64%
Odd Média: 6,70
Forma (30)
[Picks]Selected Over/Under Picks from Norwegian Matches
010h ago
Mais/Menos07/03 16:001. Divisão Norueguesa
VitóriaKongsvinger
FT--
Sogndal
Mais-
Line3,5/4
Menos-
A number of bookmakers opened with a 3.5-goal line, with the over priced in a low range between 0.79 and 0.94. As the match approached, some firms moved the line from 3.5 to 3.5/4 goals, and even to 4 goals, while the over price remained firmly at a low level. One bookmaker adjusted from 3.5 to 4 goals, with the over price moving from 0.80 to 1.20. Although the price was raised, the line increase was even more dramatic. More importantly, some bookmakers held firm at a 2.5-goal line, with the over price driven down to an ultra-low 0.28. This kind of shallow line with extremely low pricing is a very rare method of controlling liabilities, indicating that the bookmakers are strongly wary of at least three goals being scored in the match. The overall movement of the line structure from the opening market to the live market clearly points toward the over.
On the fundamentals, home side Kongsvinger have scored 31 goals in 13 league matches this season, with an attack averaging 2.38 goals per game, among the best in the Norwegian First Division. They have scored 18 goals in six home matches, finding the net at least twice in every game. Away side Sogndal have seen the over hit in 80% of their last 10 matches, and in 9 of their 13 league games the total goals have reached or exceeded three. Their style is extremely open, while their defense is conceding as many as 2.38 goals per game on average. In the last 10 meetings between the two sides, six have gone over 2.5 goals, including high-scoring contests such as 4-2 and 3-3. Taking into account the strong deep-line, low-price signals and both teams’ open attacking and defensive profiles, the over is worth backing.
