European mainstream bookmakers opened uniformly at 2.5/3 goals, with the over price concentrated in the low-to-mid range of 0.78 to 0.87. As the match approached, the over price did not rise and overall remained stable, while several Asian bookmakers even lowered the over price further. More notably, some companies that opened at a 2.5-goal line pushed the over price down to the ultra-low 0.60 to 0.61 range, which is a classic move to lower the line and control liability. In terms of fundamentals, the home team has scored an average of 2.6 goals per game over its last 10 matches, showing steady attacking output, while at home that figure rises to 3 goals per game. The away team has scored an average of 4.3 goals in its last 10 matches, making its attack even more frightening, while its defense has been almost watertight. Both squads are fully fit, with no key players missing, so they can field their strongest lineups. Looking at the head-to-head record, the home team has won every meeting against the away side, giving it a clear psychological edge. Their most recent encounter ended 3-2, and before that there was also a 3-1 result. When these two sides meet, the tempo is often brisk, which tends to produce plenty of goals. From a motivation standpoint, the nature of a friendly means neither side is under much pressure, and both are more likely to play openly rather than cautiously. With the low-price support on the line, the over is the direction worth backing.