South Tyrol host Bari at home. The two sides sit 16th and 17th respectively, separated by just one point, so the pressure to avoid relegation is significant for both. But what may decide this match is the extreme inefficiency of both attacks.
South Tyrol are winless in their last six matches, with four draws and two defeats. More importantly, they have scored just four goals in those six games, averaging 0.67 goals per match. At home, they have netted only 19 times in 19 matches, exactly one goal per game. Bari’s away attack has been even worse: just 15 goals in 19 away matches, averaging 0.79 goals per game. In Serie B, both teams rank among the poorest in attacking efficiency.
The over/under line gives a clear signal. The opening line was 2/2.5 goals and remained unchanged close to kick-off, while the under price dropped sharply from the 0.96-0.99 range to a low 0.80-0.87. Some bookmakers even moved from 2.5 goals down to 2/2.5, further limiting the space for the over. The continued decline in the under price suggests the market is very confident in a low-scoring game.
In the last 10 meetings between the two sides, eight have gone under, with the over rate standing at just 20%. Their last five encounters all finished under, and the highest total was only two goals. That historical trend will only be reinforced by this season’s struggles in front of goal from both teams.
Overall, the line points to the under, the under price is low, the historical under rate is high, and both attacks are blunt. Four signals all point in the same direction.
Recommended over/under bet: Under 2/2.5 goals.
Scoreline picks: 0-0, 1-0, 0-1.