In the first round of the World Cup group stage, Argentina and Algeria will face off in Kansas City. From a market perspective, Argentina is unquestionably the more heavily backed side — the defending champions, Lionel Messi’s final World Cup, and a star-studded attack have made Argentina one of the favorites to win the tournament. But precisely because of this “taken-for-granted” hype, Algeria has considerable room for value on the betting lines. Argentina have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, a record that looks almost flawless on paper, but their Asian handicap win rate is only 40%. In other words, Argentina often win, but rarely win “beautifully” — their ability to beat the spread is far below market expectations. Against teams like Iceland, Honduras and Mauritania, Argentina either scraped a 2-0 win or won the match but failed to cover, and they have rarely produced dominant, high-margin victories. This is no coincidence; Scaloni’s side clearly took a more conservative approach in their pre-World Cup warm-up matches, with the tactical focus on controlling the tempo rather than chasing goal difference. The absence of Tagliafico leaves a potential weakness on the left side of defense, and against Algeria’s wing play, Argentina may not be able to dictate proceedings as easily as they do against weaker opponents. Algeria are one of the most underrated African teams at this World Cup. They have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, with their only defeat coming against Nigeria, and their opponents have included the Netherlands (1-0), Bolivia (4-0) and Uruguay (0-0), which shows the quality of their results. Algeria’s defense has been outstanding — they have conceded just 4 goals in their last 10 matches and kept 6 clean sheets. Although center-back Bensebaini is missing, Algeria’s defensive structure is built on the collective rather than any individual, and a back line of Africa Cup of Nations champions’ quality will not fall apart easily. In terms of the handicap, bookmakers initially offered a mixed line between one goal/one and a half goals and one and a half goals, but the closing line settled uniformly back at one goal/one and a half goals. Argentina’s water level rose from the 0.91-1.01 range to a high of 0.95-1.05, while Algeria’s dropped to 0.86-0.92. The line retreat, combined with the home side’s high price, suggests the bookmakers’ confidence in an Argentina blowout is fading. Algeria have covered the spread in both of their last two matches when given a one goal/one and a half goals handicap, proving their ability to withstand pressure. Argentina winning the match is the most likely outcome, but against Algeria’s disciplined defense, winning by two goals will not be easy. Algeria look capable of holding firm against the spread and losing by no more than one goal, with the scoreline leaning toward 1-0 or 2-1.