First, let’s look at the handicap movement. Several bookmakers opened with a line of 2.5/3 goals, with the over priced in the low-to-mid range between 0.83 and 0.96. As we moved into the pre-match window, the line was collectively adjusted upward, with most bookmakers pushing it directly from 2.5/3 goals to 3 goals, while the over price instead edged lower from its already low level. At some companies, the over price dropped from 0.83 at the opening to 0.87; at others, from 0.79 to 0.84; and with some bookmakers, from 0.76 to 0.83. When the line was raised but the over price did not rise as well, that was certainly not a move to entice bettors toward the over. Rather, it was an active effort by the bookmakers to reduce payout risk on the over side. Even more noteworthy, a few bookmakers held firm at 2.5 goals and compressed the over price to an ultra-low 0.57, a classic line-drop and risk-control move, showing that they were extremely wary of the match producing at least three goals. The overall evolution of the market from the opening line to the current line clearly points in one direction: expectations for the over are continuing to heat up. From a fundamental perspective, Spain have averaged 2.7 goals per game over their last 10 matches, which puts their attacking firepower among the elite in European football. Although the previous 1-1 draw with Iraq was somewhat dull, they had produced a string of high-scoring results before that, including a 6-0 rout of Turkey, a 4-0 thrashing of Georgia, and a comfortable 3-0 win over Serbia. The squad is packed with quality in midfield and attack, so even with some rotation, the team’s overall offensive strength is unlikely to drop off sharply. With the World Cup just around the corner, Spain need these warm-up matches to fine-tune their attacking structure and improve player condition, so motivation should not be an issue. As for Peru, while their overall quality is far below Spain’s, they have not been short of goals in recent matches. Their over rate in the last 10 games has reached 50%, and they beat Haiti 2-1 in their last outing, while before that they drew 2-2 with Honduras, showing that their attack is not completely ineffective. Defensively, Peru are conceding 1.4 goals per game on average, and the pressure on their back line against Spain’s formidable attack is easy to imagine. If they concede first, Peru are unlikely to be able to sit deep and defend for the full 90 minutes. Once space opens up at the back, Spain have every ability to score more. In the head-to-head record, the two sides have met twice before and both matches went over, with scorelines of 2-1 and 2-1. Although those results are dated and of limited reference value, they at least show that meetings between these teams are not typically dull affairs. Taking together the strong market signals of a line rise with lower over pricing, along with the attacking and defensive profiles of both teams, the over is the direction worth following.