In this international friendly, the market’s enthusiasm for Germany may be overstated, and backing the United States to cover the handicap is worth considering. In terms of squad completeness, Germany have suffered a key setback. First-choice goalkeeper Manuel Neuer is out with a calf issue, leaving the team without the organizer of the back line, which is a direct blow to their defensive stability. The United States, meanwhile, are fully healthy and can field their strongest lineup, giving them more motivation and physical reserves in front of their home fans. Looking at recent form, the United States have won five of their last 10 matches, including victories over strong opponents such as Senegal and Uruguay. At home, they average 1.8 goals per game, so their attacking output is well supported. Germany have a better win rate over their last 10 matches, but a closer look at their handicap performance shows their away cover rate is under 40 percent, and their ability to win by a large margin has been inconsistent when laying a deep line. As for the head-to-head record, the two sides have met six times in the past. Although the United States have been on the back foot overall, three of those matches were decided by one goal or less, so they have not been easy to break down. This is especially true in a friendly setting, where both teams often do not play at full intensity. Overall, with Germany giving a deep handicap, the United States look capable of staying within the number.