Marco Fischer
Rendimento: +8,93%
Taxa de Acertos: +56,64%
Odd Média: 6,71
Forma(30): 15V-14D-1N+50%
[Picks]Swedish Match Picks: Over/Under Analysis
Hoje 17:00 [Allsvenskan sueca] IK Sirius FK VS Mjällby AIF
Mais/Menos
10 hours ago
1
810 hours agoRendimento: +8,93% | Taxa de Acertos: 56,64%
Odd Média: 6,70
Forma (30)
[Picks]Selected Finland Match Over/Under Analysis
19h ago
Mais/Menos07/03 15:30Ykköliiga finlandesa
DerrotaJaPS
FT--
SJK Akatemia
Mais-
Line2,5/3
Menos-
Let’s start with the market movement. A number of bookmakers have uniformly opened at 2.5/3 goals, with the over priced in a low range between 0.72 and 0.87. At some firms, the over price has even been pushed down further from an opening 0.75 to 0.72. More importantly, several bookmakers have stuck with the 2.5-goal line, driving the over price down to an extremely low 0.62 to 0.65. The simultaneous appearance of both a deep line with low prices and a shallower line with ultra-low over prices clearly points to the over, suggesting that bookmakers are strongly guarding against a match with at least three goals.
Looking at the fundamentals, the home side, JäPS, has suffered a run of defeats recently, but its over rate in the last 10 matches is still 40%. In six home games, three have finished with three or more total goals, so the team is not a conservative one. Although the away side, SJK Akatemia, has posted only a 10% over rate in its last 10 matches, a closer look at the numbers shows that it has conceded 16 goals in 12 league rounds, exposing clear defensive weaknesses. In the first meeting this season, the home team beat the opponent 2-0 away, and back on home soil its attacking intent should be even stronger. More importantly, the away side’s starting left-back, Leila, is out after Achilles tendon surgery, which has weakened the integrity of the back line and provides extra support for the over. The home team desperately needs a win to halt its slump, while the away team also needs points in the relegation battle, so neither side is likely to be overly cautious. Taking the low-priced market setup and the two teams’ attacking and defensive profiles into account, the over is worth backing.
