Match: World Cup Qualifying - Europe
Fixture: Italy vs Northern Ireland
Local Kick-off Time: Mar 26, 2026 7.45pm
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Prediction: Italy -1.5
Italy’s European competitiveness is certainly open to question, as they failed to produce dominant displays against Moldova, Estonia and Israel in the group stage.
Notably, those underwhelming performances all came away from home, and Italy remain highly competitive on home soil despite a 4-1 defeat to Norway.
Northern Ireland are not a strong opponent, and the Asian handicap sets Italy at -1.5 goals for this match in Bergamo. Italy should cover this handicap at home.
ODDS
| Category | Selection | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1X2 | X | 4.75 |
| 1X2 | 2 | 8.50 |
| Asian Handicap | -1.5 | 1.95 |
| Asian Handicap | +1.5 | 1.85 |
| Goals (Scored) | Goals | 2.5 |
| Goals (Scored) | Over | 1.80 |
| Goals (Scored) | Under | 2.00 |
| Corners | Corners | 9.5 |
| Corners | Over | 2.10 |
| Corners | Under | 1.66 |
Comprehensive Prediction Analysis:
Italy
Italy may be four-time world champions - most recently two decades ago - but despite winning the delayed Euros in 2021, they last trod the global stage some seven years earlier.
This is their third consecutive World Cup qualifying campaign to end with a place in the playoffs, following painful defeats to Sweden and North Macedonia. Last September, the Azzurri started Group I with a 3-0 away loss to Norway, which forced former coach Luciano Spalletti to depart; under new boss Gennaro Gattuso, they posted six straight wins before facing the Norwegians again.
Requiring a huge margin of victory to seize top spot - and, with it, direct qualification - Gattuso's side instead finished with another dispiriting defeat, as Erling Haaland struck twice in a stunning away win. Citing the crowd's angry reaction to that 4-1 reverse in Milan, 2006 World Cup winner Gattuso asked to play this week's game in nearby Bergamo, rather than at his old home ground of San Siro. Reasoning that a more compact stadium could work in Italy's favour, he must now lead La Nazionale into a nerve-shredding playoff decider by beating Northern Ireland.
Aiming to avoid becoming the first former winners to miss out on three successive World Cups, the Azzurri now meet opponents they last lost to back in 1958. The sides most recently met five years ago, when a 0-0 draw at Windsor Park denied Italy automatic qualification for Qatar 2022 and led to the infamous 'disastro' against North Macedonia.
| Date/Competition | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/11/17 FIFA World Cup qualification (UEFA) | Italy | 1-4 (HT 1-0 FT 1-4) | Norway |
| 2025/11/14 FIFA World Cup qualification (UEFA) | Moldova | 0-2 (HT 0-0 FT 0-2) | Italy |
| 2025/10/15 FIFA World Cup qualification (UEFA) | Italy | 3-0 (HT 1-0 FT 3-0) | Israel |
| 2025/10/12 FIFA World Cup qualification (UEFA) | Estonia | 1-3 (HT 0-2 FT 1-3) | Italy |
| 2025/09/09 FIFA World Cup qualification (UEFA) | Israel | 4-5 (HT 1-1 FT 4-5) | Italy |
| 2025/09/06 FIFA World Cup qualification (UEFA) | Italy | 5-0 (HT 0-0 FT 5-0) | Estonia |
| 2025/06/10 FIFA World Cup qualification (UEFA) | Italy | 2-0 (HT 1-0 FT 2-0) | Moldova |
| 2025/06/07 FIFA World Cup qualification (UEFA) | Norway | 3-0 (HT 3-0 FT 3-0) | Italy |
| 2025/03/24 UEFA Nations League | Germany | 3-3 (HT 3-0 FT 3-3) | Italy |
| 2025/03/21 UEFA Nations League | Italy | 1-2 (HT 1-0 FT 1-2) | Germany |
Northern Ireland
While Northern Ireland fought hard for that result in Belfast, they have lost on all seven previous visits to Italy by an aggregate score of 16-2, failing to find the net on six occasions.
In fact, they last scored against the Azzurri anywhere in a 1961 friendly, so history will be stacked high against the away side on Thursday evening. Ultimately seeking a first World Cup finals appearance for 40 years, Northern Ireland did come close to reaching Russia 2018 but lost 1-0 on aggregate to Switzerland in the playoffs. This time, they must succeed on Italian soil, then beat Wales or Bosnia in order to join co-hosts Canada, Switzerland and Qatar in Group B.
Though they only finished third in Group A of European qualifying, being beaten both home and away by Germany, NI qualified for these playoffs by virtue of their UEFA Nations League performance. A decade on from their spirited showing at Euro 2016, Michael O'Neill is back in charge - alongside his club role at Blackburn Rovers - and aims to take a young squad all the way to North America. However, Northern Ireland's last three competitive away wins were against minnows Lithuania, San Marino and Luxembourg, while they have lost their last six trips to teams ranked inside FIFA's global top 20.
| Date/Competition | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/11/18 FIFA World Cup qualification (UEFA) | Northern Ireland | 1-0 (HT 1-0 FT 1-0) | Luxembourg |
| 2025/11/15 FIFA World Cup qualification (UEFA) | Slovakia | 1-0 (HT 0-0 FT 1-0) | Northern Ireland |
| 2025/10/14 FIFA World Cup qualification (UEFA) | Northern Ireland | 0-1 (HT 0-1 FT 0-1) | Germany |
| 2025/10/11 FIFA World Cup qualification (UEFA) | Northern Ireland | 2-0 (HT 1-0 FT 2-0) | Slovakia |
| 2025/09/08 FIFA World Cup qualification (UEFA) | Germany | 3-1 (HT 1-1 FT 3-1) | Northern Ireland |
| 2025/09/05 FIFA World Cup qualification (UEFA) | Luxembourg | 1-3 (HT 1-1 FT 1-3) | Northern Ireland |
| 2025/06/11 International Friendly | Northern Ireland | 1-0 (HT 1-0 FT 1-0) | Iceland |
| 2025/06/08 International Friendly | Denmark | 2-1 (HT 1-1 FT 2-1) | Northern Ireland |
| 2025/03/26 International Friendly | Sweden | 5-1 (HT 2-0 FT 5-1) | Northern Ireland |
| 2025/03/22 International Friendly | Northern Ireland | 1-1 (HT 1-1 FT 1-1) | Switzerland |
Final Prediction:
Asian Handicap: Italy -1.5
European Handicap: Home Win
Predicted Scores: 2-0, 3-1, 3-0
Predicted Total Goals: 2, 3, 4
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