Italian Super Cup: Bologna vs Inter Milan Prediction & Betting Tips

Match: Coppa Italia Supercoppa (Italian Super Cup)
Fixture: Bologna vs Inter Milan

Local Kick-off Time: December 19th, 22:00

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Opening Odds

Summary: Inter Milan Win

The two teams have shared honors in their last 10 encounters (4 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses), but Bologna have remained unbeaten in 5 of the last 6 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), successfully reversing historical disadvantages. Especially with a 1-0 home win in April 2025 and a 2-2 away draw in January, they have established psychological dominance. The style contrast is stark: Bologna's possession-based counter-attacks (57% possession rate) against Inter's depleted possession-based play (52% possession rate) will present a classic "solid defense vs. dominant attack" scenario. The Asian Handicap initially opened at Inter Milan -0.5/-1, reflecting market recognition of Inter's overall strength, but also acknowledging their injury concerns and Bologna's cup resilience. However, Inter's form this season has consistently been statistically superior to Bologna's, so Inter can be trusted to win at the neutral venue.

Comprehensive Prediction Analysis:

Bologna :

As the "new cup kings" who lifted the Coppa Italia for the first time in 51 years, Bologna regard the Supercoppa as a springboard for "dual-line breakthrough"—sitting comfortably in mid-table in the league with no relegation pressure, the cup competition has become another honor target besides challenging for European qualification. The experience of defeating AC Milan to win the Coppa Italia on May 14th has boosted the team's morale to its peak, fully testing their tactical cohesion and ability to handle pressure in major competitions. The manager clearly stated before the match: "We will continue the winning cup tactics, relying on solid defense and efficient counter-attacks to face Inter Milan."
Tactically, they retain the 4-2-3-1 possession system, focusing on "midfield pressing + ribs combinations + set-piece surprises": the double defensive midfielder sweeping partnership (averaging 7.9 combined interceptions per game) is the key to disrupting Inter's possession, with an 82% interception success rate to effectively slow down the opponent's progression; winger Mattia Orsolini's dribbling and crossing are the core of offensive scoring, and his set-piece deliveries are a lethal weapon—22% of the team's goals come from set-pieces, which can specifically target Inter's aerial weakness (52% average aerial duel success rate). The center-forward's hold-up play (3.8 successful aerial duels per game) is responsible for back-to-goal link-up play, creating opportunities for onrushing attackers like Riccardo Orsolini. Squad concerns are concentrated in defense: the starting goalkeeper and defender are sidelined, the second-choice goalkeeper lacks experience, and the chemistry of the makeshift defense is questionable.

Inter Milan:

Inter Milan lead Serie A with 33 points, having secured 38 wins in 2025, demonstrating terrifying dominance at both ends of the pitch—the league's strongest attack (34 goals scored) + the most clean sheets in Serie A since August (10 times), making them the top favorites for this match. As regular participants in the Supercoppa, the Nerazzurri view the tournament as an important piece of their "treble bid" for the season. Manager Chivu confirmed before the match: "The entire squad will fully strive for the final, with key players including Lautaro Martínez and Nicolò Barella all set to feature."
Affected by injuries in the midfield and defense, the tactics have been forced to adjust to a 3-5-2 formation, focusing on "midfield pressing + efficient counter-attacks + set-pieces": the midfield partnership of Nicolò Barella and Piotr Zieliński takes on the organizing responsibilities—Barella averages 3.2 key passes per game to control the tempo, while Zieliński's long-range shots (3 goals outside the penalty area this season) provide an important supplement; Inter's tactics rely on wing-back Dimarco's overlapping assists (2.8 crosses per game) to stretch the play. The attack is multi-faceted, with 13 players scoring in Serie A this season—captain Lautaro Martínez is in red-hot form, scoring 4 goals in his last 3 matches and finding the net in four consecutive Supercoppa tournaments, showcasing strong big-match temperament. Defensive vulnerabilities are fatal: key defender Francesco Acerbi and right wing-back Denzel Dumfries are sidelined, veteran Matteo Darmian returns from injury to fill in on the wing, and the makeshift defense's aerial ability and wing cover have declined significantly, putting them under immense pressure against Bologna's set-pieces and counter-attacks.

Handicap Prediction:

Inter Milan -0.75 (Asian Handicap)

Away Win (European Handicap)

Predicted Scores: 1-2, 1-3, 0-3

Predicted Total Goals: 3, 4, 5

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