Match: Copa del Rey
Fixture: Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao
Local Kick-off Time: Mar 4, 2026 8.00pm
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Prediction: Real Sociedad to win (within 90 minutes)
Real Sociedad beat Athletic Bilbao 1-0 away in the first leg. They are not expected to adopt an overly conservative strategy at home, as a 1-0 aggregate lead must be protected with attacking play.
In terms of recent form, Athletic Bilbao have been relatively poor, having been held to a home draw by Rayo Vallecano last time out, while Real Sociedad beat Mallorca 1-0 away. The gap between the two sides is not big, as shown by their league positions.
We favour Real Sociedad, who are unbeaten in their past four meetings (two wins, two draws). Playing at home, they have a strong chance to win and advance.
| Type | Option 1 | Odds 1 | Option 2 | Odds 2 | Option 3 | Odds 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 1 | 2.10 | X | 3.40 | 2 | 3.30 |
| Asian Handicap | -0.5/1 | 1.80 | +0.5/1 | 2.00 | ||
| Scored (Goals) | 2/2.5 | Over 1.85 | Under 1.95 | |||
| Corners | 9.5 | Over 1.83 | Under 1.83 |
Comprehensive Prediction Analysis:
Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad were impressive in their one-goal success at San Mames in the first leg, and the White and Blues are now in an excellent position to reach the final of the competition, but their job is far from complete ahead of the next instalment of the Basque derby.
La Real have only actually won the Copa del Rey on three previous occasions, with their last success in the tournament coming in 2019-20, beating Athletic in the final. In total, Real Sociedad and Athletic have met on 14 occasions in the Copa del Rey, with the former boasting six wins to the latter's five, and four of their last five contests in this competition have been won by the White and Blues.
Real Sociedad will enter this match off the back of a 1-0 win over Mallorca, with the result leaving them eighth in the La Liga table, five points off the top six. Pellegrino Matarazzo's side would take on either Atletico Madrid or Barcelona in the final of this season's Copa del Rey if they manage to finish the job on Wednesday night.
Real Sociedad will again be missing Takefusa Kubo due to a hamstring problem, while Alvaro Odriozola and Inaki Ruperez will also be absent for the Basque derby. There are not expected to be any surprises when it comes to the Real Sociedad XI for this game, with the matchwinner from the first leg - Turrientes - again set for a spot in midfield. Orri Oskarsson is viewed as an injury doubt, so Carlos Soler is likely to be given the nod to support Mikel Oyarzabal in the final third of the field.
| Date/Competition | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/03/01La Liga | RCD Mallorca | 0-1HT 0-1 FT 0-1 | Real Sociedad |
| 2026/02/21La Liga | Real Sociedad | 3-3HT 0-0 FT 3-3 | Real Oviedo |
| 2026/02/15La Liga | Real Sociedad | 4-1HT 3-1 FT 4-1 | Real Madrid |
| 2026/02/12Copa del Rey | Athletic Club | 0-1HT 0-0 FT 0-1 | Real Sociedad |
| 2026/02/08La Liga | Real Sociedad | 3-1HT 2-1 FT 3-1 | Elche |
| 2026/02/05Copa del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 2-3HT 2-1 FT 2-3 | Real Sociedad |
| 2026/02/02La Liga | Athletic Club | 1-1HT 0-1 FT 1-1 | Real Sociedad |
| 2026/01/26La Liga | Real Sociedad | 3-1HT 1-0 FT 3-1 | RC Celta |
| 2026/01/19La Liga | Real Sociedad | 1-2HT 1-0 FT 2-1 | FC Barcelona |
| 2026/01/14La Liga | Real Sociedad | 2-2PEN 4-3, HT 0-2 FT 2-2 | CA Osasuna |
Athletic Bilbao
Athletic, meanwhile, will enter this match off the back of a 1-1 draw with Rayo Vallecano, and they have been in strong form since losing the first leg to Real Sociedad, picking up seven points from their last three league fixtures.
Ernesto Valverde's side are unbeaten in La Liga since January 24, and 35 points from 26 matches has left them in ninth position in the table, also five points off the top six. The Lions are the second-most successful side in the history of the Copa del Rey, having won the competition on 24 occasions, second to Barcelona's 32.
Athletic's last triumph in the Copa del Rey came in 2023-24, which proved to be their first success since lifting the trophy in 1983-84. The Lions have not managed to overcome Real Sociedad in the Copa del Rey since February 1982, while they are winless in each of their last four Basque derbies.
As for Athletic, Unai Eguiluz and Yeray Alvarez will definitely miss the contest, while Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta, Maroan Sannadi, Nico Williams and Benat Prados are major doubts. Inaki Williams was on the scoresheet against Rayo last time out and is set to feature in a wide area, while Gorka Guruzeta should again be selected through the middle. With Ruiz de Galarreta a major doubt due to the issue that he sustained against Rayo, Alejandro Rego is on standby to be introduced in the middle of midfield.
| Date/Competition | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/02/28La Liga | Rayo Vallecano | 1-1HT 1-1 FT 1-1 | Athletic Club |
| 2026/02/21La Liga | Athletic Club | 2-1HT 0-0 FT 2-1 | Elche |
| 2026/02/15La Liga | Real Oviedo | 1-1HT 1-0 FT 1-2 | Athletic Club |
| 2026/02/12Copa del Rey | Athletic Club | 0-1HT 0-0 FT 0-1 | Real Sociedad |
| 2026/02/08La Liga | Athletic Club | 4-2HT 2-0 FT 4-2 | Levante |
| 2026/02/05Copa del Rey | Valencia CF | 1-2HT 1-1 FT 1-2 | Athletic Club |
| 2026/02/02La Liga | Athletic Club | 1-1HT 0-1 FT 1-1 | Real Sociedad |
| 2026/01/29UEFA Champions League | Athletic Club | 2-3HT 2-1 FT 2-3 | Sporting CP |
| 2026/01/25La Liga | Sevilla FC | 2-1HT 1-1 FT 2-1 | Athletic Club |
| 2026/01/22UEFA Champions League | Atalanta | 2-3HT 1-0 FT 2-3 | Athletic Club |
Final Prediction:
Asian Handicap: Real Sociedad -0.25
European Handicap: Home Win
Predicted Scores: 2-0, 2-1, 3-1
Predicted Total Goals: 2, 3, 4
This content provides sports news and pre-match analysis for fan discussion only. Sports events involve uncertainties; actual results shall prevail.
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