Match: Champions League
Fixture: Newcastle United vs Qarabag FK
Local Kick-off Time: Feb 24, 2026 8.00pm
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Prediction: Newcastle United wins
This tie is effectively already decided. The Azerbaijani side travel to Newcastle only playing for pride. Newcastle are likely to heavily rotate their squad to manage a busy upcoming schedule of Premier League and FA Cup games, giving youth and fringe players valuable minutes. The Asian handicap sets Newcastle -2.5 goals, but under these circumstances, they are more likely to win by fewer than two goals.
ODDS
| Type | Option 1 | Odds 1 | Option 2 | Odds 2 | Option 3 | Odds 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 1 | 1.08 | X | 9.50 | 2 | 23.00 |
| Asian Handicap | -2.5 | 1.83 | +2.5 | 2.03 | ||
| Scored (Goals) | 3.5 | Over 1.85 | Under 2.00 | |||
| Corners | 10.5 | Over 2.00 | Under 1.72 |
Comprehensive Prediction Analysis:
Newcastle United
Anthony Gordon, Anthony Gordon, Anthony Gordon, Anthony Gordon.
On a one-man mission to propel Newcastle into the last 16 of the Champions League, the former Everton and Liverpool starlet sent records tumbling in Azerbaijan, scoring a fabulous four goals to effectively end the playoff tie as a contest. The list of feats Gordon achieved are too long to write here, but a quick snapshot is the least he deserves; the fastest hat-trick from an English player in the competition, the first Newcastle player to score four in a UCL game, and now also the Magpies' highest scorer in a Champions League campaign (10).
Malick Thiaw and Jacob Murphy got in on the act for good measure, and history is unsurprisingly on Newcastle's side; of the previous 91 occasions where a team has won the first leg of a European Cup knockout game by 5+ goals, that team has progressed 91 times. Howe's men can already begin to prepare for a last-16 showdown with either Chelsea or Barcelona, but their momentum took a slight hit on Saturday night, when a Nico O'Reilly-inspired Manchester City eked out a 2-1 Premier League triumph at the Etihad. St James' Park has also lost its fortress status in recent weeks, as the hosts have lost three of their last four matches in front of their own fans in all competitions, while also conceding 2+ goals in five of their last six on familiar territory.
| Date/Competition | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/02/22Premier League | Manchester City | 2-1HT 2-1 FT 2-1 | Newcastle United |
| 2026/02/19UEFA Champions League | Qarabag | 1-6HT 0-5 FT 1-6 | Newcastle United |
| 2026/02/15FA Cup | Aston Villa | 1-3HT 1-0 FT 1-3 | Newcastle United |
| 2026/02/11Premier League | Tottenham Hotspur | 1-2HT 0-1 FT 1-2 | Newcastle United |
| 2026/02/08Premier League | Newcastle United | 2-3HT 1-2 FT 2-3 | Brentford |
| 2026/02/05English Football League Cup | Manchester City | 3-1HT 3-0 FT 3-1 | Newcastle United |
| 2026/02/01Premier League | Liverpool | 4-1HT 2-1 FT 4-1 | Newcastle United |
| 2026/01/29UEFA Champions League | Paris Saint Germain | 1-1HT 1-1 FT 1-1 | Newcastle United |
| 2026/01/25Premier League | Newcastle United | 0-2HT 0-1 FT 0-2 | Aston Villa |
| 2026/01/22UEFA Champions League | Newcastle United | 3-0HT 2-0 FT 3-0 | PSV Eindhoven |
Qarabag FK
Qarabag will take any slice of hope they can get ahead of what will surely be mission impossible for the Azerbaijani upstarts, who have still given a respectable account of themselves in the Champions League regardless of what transpires in the north of England.
Qurban Qurbanov's crop should forever remember their success over Benfica and hard-fought draw with Chelsea, but the visitors have simply run out of European steam and have had their defensive vulnerabilities ruthlessly exposed.
Indeed, Qarabag have now shipped six goals in back-to-back Champions League games after also being battered by Liverpool, while conceding multiple goals in each of their six games in Europe's premier tournament. The unfancied visitors have also failed to take down an English club in any competition - losing nine and drawing one of their 10 such contests - while suffering five losses in all such away games by an aggregate score of 19-1. Qarabag's domestic clash with FK Neftchi at the weekend was at least postponed to give Qurbanov's side as much preparation as possible for their jaunt to England, but the away side are likely already re-focusing on the Azerbaijan Premier League title fight, in which they sit four points off top spot.
| Date/Competition | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/02/19UEFA Champions League | Qarabag | 1-6HT 0-5 FT 1-6 | Newcastle United |
| 2026/02/14Azerbaijan Premier League | İmişli FK | 0-1HT 0-0 FT 0-1 | Qarabag |
| 2026/02/10Azerbaijan Premier League | Shamakhi FK | 1-2HT 1-1 FT 1-2 | Qarabag |
| 2026/02/05Azerbaijan Cup | Shamakhi FK | 2-1HT 2-0 FT 2-1 | Qarabag |
| 2026/02/01Azerbaijan Premier League | Qarabag | 1-0HT 1-0 FT 1-0 | Turan Tovuz |
| 2026/01/29UEFA Champions League | Liverpool | 6-0HT 2-0 FT 6-0 | Qarabag |
| 2026/01/22UEFA Champions League | Qarabag | 3-2HT 1-1 FT 3-2 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 2026/01/16International Club Friendly | Zaglebie Lubin | 1-3HT 1-1 FT 1-3 | Qarabag |
| 2026/01/16International Club Friendly | NK Osjek | 1-3HT 1-0 FT 1-3 | Qarabag |
| 2026/01/12International Club Friendly | Qarabag | 5-0HT 4-0 FT 5-0 | Neftchi Fargana |
Final Prediction:
Asian Handicap: Qarabag FK +2.5
European Handicap: Home Win
Predicted Scores: 2-0, 3-1, 1-0
Predicted Total Goals: 1, 2, 3, 4
This content provides sports news and pre-match analysis for fan discussion only. Sports events involve uncertainties; actual results shall prevail.
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