Match: UEFA Champions League
Fixture: Real Madrid VS Benfica
UTC Kick-off Time: 8:00pm, Wednesday, Feb. 25th, 2026
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Opening Odds
| Opening Odds | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 X 2 | 1.42 | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| Asian Handicap | -1/1.5 1.95 | +1/1.5 1.90 | |
Scored | Goals | Over | Under |
| 3 | 2.05 | 1.80 | |
Corners | Corners | Over | Under |
| 10.5 | 1.90 | 1.80 |
Prediction: Real Madrid Wins
Benfica loves a scrap, as does their manager Jose Mourinho, especially when the chips are down. The Portuguese visitors have already downed Madrid once in the season, on matchday eight of the league phase. That said, Madrid have a great record at home. They have won their last six competitive matches in a row at this venue and also have three wins from four home games in this year’s Champions League.
This could be a tight game overall, and our Real Madrid vs Benfica Lisbon prediction is Real Madrid Wins and less than 3.5 goals.
Comprehensive Prediction Analysis:
Real Madrid
| Date/Competition | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/02/22La Liga | CA Osasuna | 2-1 (HT 1-0 FT 2-1) | Real Madrid |
| 2026/02/18UEFA Champions League | Benfica | 0-1 (HT 0-0 FT 0-1) | Real Madrid |
| 2026/02/15La Liga | Real Madrid | 4-1 (HT 3-1 FT 4-1) | Real Sociedad |
| 2026/02/09La Liga | Valencia CF | 0-2 (HT 0-0 FT 0-2) | Real Madrid |
| 2026/02/01La Liga | Real Madrid | 2-1 (HT 1-0 FT 2-1) | Rayo Vallecano |
| 2026/01/29UEFA Champions League | Benfica | 4-2 (HT 2-1 FT 4-2) | Real Madrid |
| 2026/01/25La Liga | Villarreal CF | 0-2 (HT 0-0 FT 0-2) | Real Madrid |
| 2026/01/21UEFA Champions League | Real Madrid | 6-1 (HT 2-0 FT 6-1) | AS Monaco |
| 2026/01/17La Liga | Real Madrid | 2-0 (HT 0-0 FT 2-0) | Levante |
| 2026/01/15Copa del Rey | Albacete Balompié SAD | 3-2 (HT 1-1 FT 3-2) | Real Madrid |
Madrid had a shocker at the weekend, losing 2-1 at Osasuna in La Liga, dropping to second in the domestic standings. That was, however, just their second defeat in their last nine competitive matches (W7).
The record gets better when they play here, as Los Blancos have won their last six competitive home games. The hosts scored 21 goals in this sequence, so action could be guaranteed if they continue that scoring form.
Madrid will be without Rodrygo, who is suspended. They will also be without Jude Bellingham, Dean Huijsen, Eder Militao, and Dani Ceballos. All eyes will be on Vinicius Junior, who was at the centre of action – on and off the pitch – in the first leg.
The Brazilian is likely to partner Kylian Mbappe up front in their 4-4-2 formation. Mbappe has 13 goals to his name and is the highest scorer in this year’s competition, while no other Madrid player has scored more than two!
Benfica
| Date/Competition | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/02/22Primeira Liga | Benfica | 3-0 (HT 3-0 FT 3-0) | AVS Futebol SAD |
| 2026/02/18UEFA Champions League | Benfica | 0-1 (HT 0-0 FT 0-1) | Real Madrid |
| 2026/02/14Primeira Liga | Santa Clara | 1-2 (HT 0-2 FT 1-2) | Benfica |
| 2026/02/09Primeira Liga | Benfica | 2-1 (HT 1-1 FT 2-1) | Alverca |
| 2026/02/02Primeira Liga | CD Tondela | 0-0 (HT 0-0 FT 0-0) | Benfica |
| 2026/01/29UEFA Champions League | Benfica | 4-2 (HT 2-1 FT 4-2) | Real Madrid |
| 2026/01/26Primeira Liga | Benfica | 4-0 (HT 1-0 FT 4-0) | CF Estrela Amadora SAD |
| 2026/01/22UEFA Champions League | Juventus | 2-0 (HT 0-0 FT 2-0) | Benfica |
| 2026/01/18Primeira Liga | Rio Ave | 0-2 (HT 0-2 FT 0-2) | Benfica |
| 2026/01/15Portuguese Cup | FC Porto | 1-0 (HT 1-0 FT 1-0) | Benfica |
Benfica bounced back from the first-leg defeat with a 3-0 home win over AVS in the domestic league. It was their fifth win in the last seven competitive games (D1, L1), so the visitors have some momentum to fall back on.
It’s their away form that should be of concern for the Portuguese. Benfica have won only two of their last six away matches in all competitive matches (D2, L2). The record is worse in this competition, as Benfica were beaten on three of their last four Champions League trips (W1) this season.
Benfica’s absence list is headed by Gianluca Prestianni, who has been suspended by UEFA for the racist abuse against Vinicius. Another confirmed absence is Nuno Felix, while midfielder Joao Veloso is an injury doubt.
The visitors are likely to stick to the 4-2-3-1 system, unless Mourinho would look to stack his midfield and start in a 4-5-1 formation. The forward line will be led by Vangelis Pavlidis, who has two goals and two assists to his name in this year’s Champions League competition.
Final Prediction:
Asian Handicap: Real Madrid -1/1.5
European Handicap: Real Madrid wins
Predicted Scores: 1-0, 2-0, 2-1
Predicted Total Goals: 1, 2, 3
This content provides sports news and pre-match analysis for fan discussion only. Sports events involve uncertainties; actual results shall prevail.
