From the two teams’ attacking and defensive characteristics, as well as the match situation, this is a game with a high probability of going over.
Although Iraq are at a disadvantage in overall strength, they are by no means incapable of scoring. They have scored 11 goals in their last 10 international matches, averaging more than one per game, and even managed to nick a goal against Spain. More importantly, Iraq’s defense is not solid — they have conceded 10 goals in their last 10 matches, and against stronger opponents they often concede two or more. Norway boast a star-studded attacking line led by Haaland, Ødegaard and Sørloth. They have scored 31 goals in their last 10 competitive matches, averaging 3.1 per game, and their firepower is truly frightening. Against a defense of Iraq’s level, Norway should not struggle to find the net.
The movement in the over/under line is very clear. Most bookmakers initially set the line at 2.5/3 goals, and by the close of betting it had mostly moved up to 3 goals. The over price rose from the 0.81-0.98 range to 0.91-1.05, while the under price correspondingly dropped to 0.80-0.91. Several firms such as 36, 10 and Ying* moved the line from 2.5/3 to 3 goals, with the over price still kept in a reasonable 0.91-0.99 range. After the line was adjusted upward, the over price did not spike, which suggests that the bookmakers are still guarding against the over landing in reality.
Iraq must go for points if they want any hope of advancing, so they cannot sit back and defend from the opening whistle; Norway’s attacking explosiveness, spearheaded by Haaland, is enough to break through almost any back line. In a World Cup opener, neither side is likely to be too cautious — Iraq will look to steal a goal, while Norway will want to rack up goal difference. The total number of goals in this match is expected to be at least 3. The over is the preferred pick.