Although his release clause is only valid in the first half of the winter transfer window, a January move is still possible for him. The reason is that several clubs are in negotiations. While there has been much talk about the clause, the key part of the negotiations lies with the player—to find out if he wants to make a mid-season move and if he has a preferred destination. In fact, once you have the player’s approval, you may be able to convince him to reach an agreement in advance.
As far as I know, the payment terms are relatively transparent. Bournemouth will receive £65 million if the transfer goes through in January, which will decrease by about £5 million in the summer. However, I was told that the clause is a bit complicated because the £65 million includes some add-ons. Moreover, due to solidarity payments, the full £65 million will go to Bournemouth. It is similar to the deal where Liverpool signed Alexander Isak from Newcastle for £130 million, but the Reds’ book cost was £125 million. Therefore, the actual amount paid to Bournemouth may be slightly less than £65 million. This will not have a major impact though, because wherever he goes, he will most likely sign a five-year contract, with the transfer fee amortized over a maximum of five years. So whether it is £60 million, £62 million or £65 million, it may not make much difference.
Currently, some clubs would prefer to complete the deal in the summer, but if a club like Man City or Liverpool pushes for a January move, I think all interested clubs will join the race. This again shows why this transfer saga has attracted so much attention—because one club may strongly state: “We will not wait for the player’s decision. We just need to trigger the clause and then see his reaction.”
Breaking down the clubs one by one, Man City is very serious about Semenyo. As I said in my previous update, they are looking for a different type of winger, one who has the output ability of a wing midfielder. In the past 48 hours, they have held talks with the player’s camp, so their situation is worth watching. Of course, there is also Liverpool, who want to make a succession plan for Mohamed Salah but have not found a replacement for Luis Díaz either. One of Semenyo’s strengths is that he is truly ambidextrous, so he can play on either the right or left flank for Liverpool.
Furthermore, if you add the factors that Salah will be participating in the Africa Cup of Nations and his long-term future is still uncertain, Liverpool’s interest becomes even more understandable. Tottenham have been quite active in the past week or two, but compared to the other two clubs I mentioned earlier, I am not sure if they are the front runners—though they cannot be ruled out either.
Then there are Man Utd and Arsenal. Arsenal would prefer to complete the deal in the summer. Let’s see if they will be forced to make a move earlier. I have been told by sources close to Arsenal that January will be quiet for them. If they are to sign a winger, they are looking for a starting left winger. That could certainly be Semenyo, since he can play on both sides, but it would likely require Leandro Trossard or Gabriel Martinelli to leave the club. They also have to consider that Noni Madueke has returned to full fitness and is in good form. So Arsenal need to make a decision: do they join the race for Semenyo, or wait until the summer to sign a more specialized left winger?
Finally, let’s talk about Man Utd. Now, I think many journalists I respect share the same view that Man Utd is also very serious about Semenyo and is preparing to take action in January. Ideally, they would wait and complete the deal in the summer, but they will not stand by and watch the competition for Semenyo without participating. So similarly, in the past 48 hours, they have also had some calls with the player and could emerge as contenders. When I first broke this news, many people scoffed, saying: “Man Utd’s interest was only in the past. They are not active now. They were only interested in him this summer. Man Utd cannot complete the deal in January.”
But I stand by my view, and I think most people now agree that Man Utd is actively involved in the race for Semenyo and has the ability to get the deal done in January. Are they the front runners? It is hard to say, because Man City and Liverpool can offer him Champions League football in the second half of the season. But are they in the race? Absolutely. So the situation is relatively open at the moment, because all parties involved are just waiting for the player’s decision. Among the Premier League’s Big Six, all except Chelsea (the only one that has not made a call so far) have been in contact with Semenyo.
Sources indicate that clubs such as Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Napoli and Lazio have also called to inquire about Semenyo, but I think if Semenyo makes a move, he will stay in the Premier League. He is more suited to playing in the No.10 role. I mean, he can certainly play as a wing-back in Rúben Amorim’s tactical system, because Amorim seems to prefer using genuine wingers in that position.
But if you call Semenyo, Tottenham would say: "You will be our left winger, since we have Mohammed Kudus on the right." Liverpool would say: "You can play on both flanks." Man City would say: "You can play almost any position, with flexibility and freedom." If Man Utd calls and says: "We want you to be a versatile winger who can play on both sides, but we may also use you as a wing-back." Who can say what his reaction would be?
Because there are significant differences in how these clubs can convince Semenyo. That is the first point to make—yes, versatility is a strength, but I think to sign Semenyo, you have to have a very specific reason. Because he has plenty of options, all great ones from big English clubs, and undoubtedly more besides. So he may say: "I am going to the club that offers Champions League football and the position I want, whatever that position may be." Many people say he can play centrally, either as a No.10 or a No.9, since that is where he started his career. I think he wants to play as a winger, but obviously with the freedom to cut inside.
Moreover, this is a World Cup year, so he may not want to make a drastic change to his position, because he knows he is aiming to play in the World Cup. These are all factors that need to be considered. That is what I mean—people want to know where he will go, and people think our team is making bids, but the key to this transfer saga is calling Semenyo and selling your club’s plan to him. Then, in my opinion, almost any club that wants to sign him will make concessions, saying: "We are prepared to trigger or match the clause, or if the player is willing to wait, we can reach an agreement in advance at a price between the January clause and the summer clause." So it is actually quite straightforward. You have to sell yourself to Semenyo, and the competition is fierce. If Man Utd’s sales pitch focuses on playing as a left wing-back, I would be a bit worried, because sources close to the player say that while he does not mind playing any position on the pitch, he is good enough to choose his main position—and I do not think he sees himself as a left wing-back.
